The plan was solved against one market pull. Over the 90 days of history now on disk, half this catalogue moves around 9% a day and the widest movers have ranged several hundred percent. A single silver figure is a claim about one afternoon.
| item | 90-day range | daily sigma | where it sits today |
|---|---|---|---|
| Star Anise | 622% | 9.1% | 15% |
| Fir Sap | 446% | 10.3% | 5% |
| Caphras Tree Sap | 400% | 10.8% | 100% |
| Thuja Timber | 356% | 7.5% | 13% |
| Elder Tree Sap | 348% | 11.9% | 18% |
| White Cedar Sap | 341% | 11.7% | 59% |
| Rough Blue Crystal | 253% | 8.8% | 0% |
| Powder of Flame | 250% | 9.8% | 100% |
Plan sigma is 2.3% a day against ~9% for a typical item, because 71 item types do not move together. Diversity across nodes is doing real work here.
| silver/day | |
|---|---|
| worst day seen | 598.4m |
| 10th percentile | 628.9m |
| median | 650.8m |
| 90th percentile | 686.1m |
| best day seen | 712.7m |
BDO enforces an absolute floor and ceiling per item - a price cannot leave that band. The trade-market service exposes both (priceMin, priceMax from GetWorldMarketSubList), which bounds the entire plan:
This node set cannot earn more than 1.0b/day or less than 52.2m/day, ever.
Treat those as the edge of the possible, not a forecast - prices never all hit their limit at once.
Items currently pinned at their ceiling: Caphras Tree Sap, Caphras Tree Timber, Monk's Branch, Noc Ore, Olivine Ore, Platinum Ore, Snowfield Cedar Sap, Snowfield Cedar Timber, Thuja Sap.
An item at its cap is a specific situation: demand is outrunning supply and the price cannot rise further, so there is no upside left in it and every surprise is downward. This is also why stock alone misleads. Nothing listed can mean nobody wants it, or that buyers eat every listing the moment it appears - Olivine Ore is the second case.
In the Settings drawer. Each re-prices every figure on the page without a re-solve.
| basis | what it means | use it to |
|---|---|---|
| Today's market | live or last-pulled quotes | see what you'd earn now |
| 90-day median | each item at its own median | judge the plan on a normal day |
| Conservative | each item at its own 10th percentile | stress-test before committing energy |
| Optimistic | each item at its own 90th percentile | see the realistic good case |
| Hard floor | every price at the game's minimum | the true worst case |
| Hard ceiling | every price at the game's maximum | the true best case |
Per-item percentiles are per item. Prices do not all bottom out on the same day, so the conservative basis is deliberately harsher than the plan's own 10th-percentile day (628.9m). Both numbers are true; they answer different questions.
The allocation itself was solved against today's quotes in every case, so these show what these exact nodes earn on another basis. A plan solved for that basis could do a little better - that is issue #8.
Re-assigning a node costs a lot of energy, so the node worth committing to is the one that is good on a normal day, not the one having a good afternoon. Two figures per node:
Ring nodes by how much today flatters them in the drawer to see this on the map: warm rings are nodes whose case rests on current prices.
A node that is both heavily flattered and volatile is the one to be sceptical about.